Calling All Jurors...
Synthetic and manipulated media, chess cheating accusations, inaccurate burrito marketing, a dubious financial market prediction and Giselle and Tom drew the top Factland stakes this week. Our random sample anonymous juries issued three verdicts and 880 $FACT token rewards, while four disputed claims with 3,054 staked $FACT tokens remained open and unresolved at the time this newsletter was sent.
Verdicts
Hans Niemann cheated in his recent victory over chess champion Magnus Carlson
FALSE - 220 $FACT staked
Niemann, an American teenager with an unremarkable record, beat Carlsen at the Sinquefield Cup chess tournament in St. Louis earlier this month, snapping a 53-match winning streak. Carlsen withdrew form the match and Tweeted a meme video stating, “If I speak I am in big trouble,” which many people interpreted as an accusation of cheating.
See the evidence here.
Video of shark swimming in flooded Fort Myers street is real
TRUE - 460 $FACT staked
For years social media has been flooded with fake media showing a shark swimming in the streets following a hurricane. Now a new video purporting to show a shark swimming in the streets of Fort Myers, FL on the heels of Hurricane Ian is making the rounds.
See the evidence here.
Burrito Bowls are not burritos
TRUE - 200 $FACT staked
A burrito by definition requires a tortilla. QED. H/t @maxdubler
See the evidence here.
Open claims
Gisele is divorcing Tom Brady because of his return to the NFL
100 $FACT staked
Last month, Gisele spoke abut wanting Tom to step away from the NFL for good. "I have my concerns," she explained to Elle Sept. 13. "This is a very violent sport, and I have my children and I would like him to be more present. I have definitely had those conversations with him over and over again. But ultimately, I feel that everybody has to make a decision that works for [them]."
This was an open claim at the time the newsletter was sent, you can still stake on the outcome, submit evidence and comment here.
Viral photo of windows holding back Hurricane Ian floodwaters is real
400 $FACT staked
An Oct. 1, 2022, Tweet by Twitter user @bothcoasts shows windows improbably holding back floodwaters from Hurricane Ian in Naples, FL. Some people speculated the structure shown had installed "hurricane windows," specially framed and constructed to withstand extreme weather conditions.
This was an open claim at the time the newsletter was sent, you can still stake on the outcome, submit evidence and comment here.
Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse
854 $FACT staked
Recent interest rate hikes have devalued its bond portfolio and due to historically high leverage many people expect it will not be able to meet fast approaching margin calls.
This was an open claim at the time the newsletter was sent, you can still stake on the outcome, submit evidence and comment here.
Russia sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines
1,650 $FACT staked
Last week, two leaks were detected in Nord Stream 1 and one leak detected in Nord Stream 2. Neither was in use shipping gas but they were pressurized with natural gas and saw pressure drop. Given the depth of the pipelines (~50m) and the complexity of such an attack many people presume a state actor was responsible. Both Russia and the US have been named as potential suspects.
This was an open claim at the time the newsletter was sent, you can still stake on the outcome, submit evidence and comment here.
Why random sample anonymous juries?
Juries are the oldest and most durable dispute resolution mechanism in history. Research shows that average people with no specialized knowledge, as a group, perform as well as or better than experts in making decisions. If someone knows the source, and they believe the source is untrustworthy, they can easily dismiss even well-researched findings. Bonus: Anonymous juries randomly summoned from the community at large answer the Internet's biggest gripe: "Why wasn't I consulted?"
At Factland we're betting on juries, and that means we are betting on you. Disputed claims won't be resolved if we do not get a quorum to review the evidence and issue a verdict. This week, just 3 of 7 staked claims were decided. When you join our beta, you'll get jury invitations in your email inbox. Take a chance, follow the link and see how the system works, then add your vote.
How Factland juries work
When a claim is contested, a 24 hour discussion window begins in which the community can stake, share evidence and comment. When the window expires, a jury summons is issued to the community to review the evidence and issue a verdict. Jurors can vote TRUE, FALSE or UNDECIDED. Jurors must cite at least one piece of evidence that convinced them to vote how they did. After a verdict is issued and a winner determined, jurors are rewarded with $FACT tokens for their service based on the size of the pool.
The verdict is rendered when the voting threshold is met for a simple majority. The voting threshold is currently 3 votes out of 5. If the first three votes are in agreement, the verdict is issued. If there is disagreement, the verdict will be delayed until a majority of jurors agree on the outcome (first two votes TRUE, third vote FALSE, fourth vote UNDECIDED, fifth and sixth votes TRUE = verdict is TRUE).
The voting threshold has been set intentionally low during the beta phase to account for the size of the active user base (small) and ensure we can nevertheless produce verdicts quickly and reliably. In the long run, we'll use statistical models based on the size of the active community to dynamically determine the voting threshold to produce the most trustworthy outcome. Stretch: anonymously verify user attributes, such as "is a professional historian," and reveal jury demographics for additional credibility and proof of representation.
Do you think we got any of this wrong? Have a better idea? Share it with us.
To learn more, follow us on Twitter at @FactlandDAO, and meet the team on Discord.
Thanks for your interest!
The Factland team